Investing.com – The US dollar rose Wednesday ahead of an eagerly-expected consumer inflation report for November, hitting the euro and sterling while the Chinese yuan retreated on reports Beijing is considering allowing the currency to weaken.
At 05:15 ET (10:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.3% higher to 106.410.
US CPI in spotlight
The dollar has seen demand Wednesday ahead of a highly anticipated reading of US inflation that could provide clues on the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
The report is expected to show that the headline annual number rose to 2.7% in November, above the 2.6% the prior month, a monthly rise of 0.3%. The ‘core’ figure, which excludes volatile food and energy components, is expected to come in at 3.3%, unchanged from October, also up 0.3% on a monthly basis.
“While it is tempting to say that the Fed has moved on from the inflation story, any upside surprise to the already high consensus expectation for core inflation at 0.3% month-on-month would likely send the dollar higher,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
“This is because the market now prices an 88% chance of a 25bp Fed rate cut next Wednesday and a high core CPI reading could make it more of a 50:50 proposition.”
The Fed has cut interest rates by 75 basis points since September and markets are currently expecting another 25-bps cut at the December 17-18 meeting.
Euro weakens ahead of ECB
In Europe, EUR/USD slipped 0.2% to 1.0501, ahead of Thursday’s policy-setting meeting by the European Central Bank, its final policy meeting of the year.
The ECB is widely expected to agree to another 25-bps rate cut, its fourth such cut this year.
“It has been a very quiet week on the European data calendar as investors await the main event of the week – tomorrow’s ECB decision,” added ING.
“Market pricing has settled on a 25bp ECB rate cut – Such a reduction seems a done deal for the market,” said ING, but “the press conference may open up the discussion for more cuts later, implying a dovish outcome for EUR.”
GBP/USD traded 0.3% lower to 1.2731, while USD/CHF rose 0.1% to 0.8841, with markets expecting another rate cut on Thursday from the Swiss National Bank, potentially by as much as 50 basis points.
China considering weaker yuan
In Asia, USD/CNY rose 0.4% to 7.2809, after Reuters reported that China is considering allowing the yuan to weaken in 2025 to brace for higher trade tariffs in a second Donald Trump presidency.
Traders are also watching for headlines from China’s closed-door Central Economic Work Conference, which runs this week.
China has committed to implementing more proactive fiscal stimulus measures and adopting moderately looser monetary policies in 2025.
USD/JPY gained 0.5% to 152.70, after data showed that Japan’s wholesale inflation increased for the third consecutive month in November, as businesses faced higher labor and raw material costs.
Markets are split over whether the BOJ will raise interest rates again, ahead of its two-day policy meeting ending on Dec. 19. The central bank raised rates twice this year on a pick-up in inflation and wages, although momentum in the two has somewhat slowed in recent months.