France’s PM faces potential no-confidence vote as early as this week

France’s Prime Minister Michel Barnier is on the brink of a no-confidence vote following a contentious move to advance a social security financing plan without full parliamentary support. Barnier, who leads a minority government since September’s inconclusive general election, could be deposed if the opposition’s dissatisfaction culminates in a successful vote against him.

The social security financing debate, part of the government’s 2025 budget plan, was set for discussion in the lower-house National Assembly on Monday. The far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen in the parliament, has been critical of various segments of the budget plan, including the social security measures.

In an attempt to appease the RN, the prime minister’s office announced the cancellation of a proposal that would have reduced prescription drug reimbursements starting next year. Despite this concession, Barnier’s position remains precarious.

Should Barnier be unable to secure a majority in parliament for his legislative agenda, he might resort to invoking executive powers under article 49.3 of the French constitution to implement the measures without a vote. This action, however, could prompt a no-confidence motion, potentially as soon as Wednesday.

Surviving a no-confidence vote would require Barnier to avoid opposition from Le Pen’s RN, as support from left-wing parties appears unlikely. The outcome of such a vote could lead to the first successful motion of no confidence in France since 1962, when Georges Pompidou’s government fell during Charles de Gaulle’s presidency.

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