Asia FX rattled by Trump tariff threat as dollar surges; yuan at 4-mth low
Investing.com– The Chinese yuan hit a four-month low against a rallying dollar on Monday as Asian currencies fell sharply on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s latest threat to impose hefty tariffs on BRICS nations.
Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS countries – including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – in a social media post on Sunday. He vowed of severe economic consequences for any nation attempting to undermine the U.S. dollar’s dominance by backing alternative currencies. His warning, aimed at countries seeking to reduce their reliance on the dollar in global trade, sent ripples through Asian markets, with concerns mounting over potential disruptions in trade relations.
The threat follows Trump’s earlier vow to impose higher tariffs on goods from China, Mexico, and Canada, sparking fears of a renewed trade war between the world’s largest economies. Heightened tensions weighed heavily on sentiment towards risk-driven markets in Asia, denting regional currencies.
The US Dollar Index surged 0.5%, while the US Dollar Index Futures jumped 0.4%, benefiting from the greenback’s status as a global safe-haven asset.
The South Korean won, and the Japanese yen led losses among Asian currencies, with the USD/JPY pair rising 0.6% and South Korea’s USD/KRW climbing 0.7%.
The Singapore dollar’s USD/SGD pair, and the Thai baht’s USD/THB pair fell 0.5% each.
The Indian rupee’s USD/INR pair rose 0.2% to a record high of 84.708 rupees.
The rupee was also pressured by data on Friday that showed that India’s gross domestic product growth slowed in the July-September period compared to the previous quarter. Still, India maintained its status as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, outpacing China’s 4.6% growth during the same period.
China’s yuan under pressure despite strong economic data
The Chinese yuan’s onshore USD/CNY pair rose 0.3% and was at its highest level since late-July, taking little support from positive purchasing managers index data for November.
China’s official manufacturing PMI for November showed a modest growth, signaling a recovery in factory output, while the private-sector Caixin PMI also rose to its highest level since June. The data was seen as a positive sign for the Chinese economy after a barrage of aggressive stimulus measures in the past two months.
However, concerns persist over the impact of rising trade tensions on Chinese exports, which remain sluggish. The yuan weakened 1.8% against the dollar in November, driven by fears of an intensifying U.S.-China trade dispute, especially after Trump’s election victory.
Dollar on the rise as investors look for rate cues; regional data awaited
The dollar started the first day of the week, and the month on an upbeat note, as markets now expect a slower rate cut path by the Federal Reserve, although a quarter percentage cut is widely expected at the Fed’s December meeting. Investors are still looking for more cues on the central bank’s rate outlook.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak on Wednesday, while key U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for November is also due later in the week.
In Asia Pacific region, the Reserve Bank of India will decide on its key interest rates on Friday, and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged amid sticky Indian inflation.
Australia is set to release its third-quarter GDP figures on Wednesday.