Morning Bid: British inflation set to dominate before Nvidia

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu

Trading was subdued in Asia with everyone waiting for the earnings results of AI darling Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), the world’s most valuable company with a market cap of $3.6 trillion.

Expectations are running high given that its shares already rallied 5% overnight. Trade in options points to a nearly $300-billion swing in market value, which will make for a potentially messy trading session ahead.

In Asia, shares were mixed, with Japan trailing behind with a drop of 0.4%. Wall Street futures were mostly steady and European stock futures also pointed to a subdued start for markets there.

Investors were rattled by Ukraine’s use of U.S. missiles to strike Russia, with Russia lowering the threshold for a possible nuclear strike, although those fears seem to have abated a little.

Bitcoin broke above $94,000 for the first time on expectations that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s administration will be crypto-friendly. Trump has yet to announce his pick for Treasury secretary yet but it could come as soon as Wednesday.

Before all the Nvidia action, British inflation data for October is due and any upside surprises there would perhaps add to recent signs that the global disinflationary pulse may have stalled.

Canada’s inflation accelerated back above 2% as investors scaled back the chance of another outsized half-point rate cut from the Bank of Canada in December. Traders are not even sure if the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points next month.

Economists expect core CPI in Britain to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis, which would push up the annual rate to 3.1% from 2.9% in the prior month. Headline inflation is likely to have rebounded to 2.2% from 1.9% before.

For the Bank of England, markets are already pricing in a gradual approach to future easing – about one cut per quarter – after chancellor Rachel Reeves’ big spending budget.

There are also a few Fed officials due to speak tonight, as well as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, all worth watching to see how far the interest rates in Europe and the U.S. could go the opposite way.

Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:

— UK CPI for October

— Nvidia Q3 earnings

— Fed Board Governor Lisa Cook, Fed Board Governor Michelle Bowman, Fed Boston President Susan Collins and ECB President Christine Lagarde due to speak at events