US 30-year mortgage rate jumps to 6.36%, biggest weekly gain in 15 months

(Reuters) – The interest rate for the most popular U.S. home loan rose to 6.36% last week, marking the biggest weekly increase in more than a year after better-than-expected economic data caused financial markets to scale back bets on further Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.

The average contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 22 basis points in the week ended Oct. 4, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday. The last time it rose that much was in July 2023, when the Fed was still increasing interest rates in its battle to bring down inflation.

The U.S. central bank began cutting its short-term benchmark rate last month, signaling confidence that inflation is headed toward its 2% goal with a bigger-than-expected reduction of half a percentage point aimed at keeping a cooling labor market from weakening further.

Mortgage rates had peaked in October 2023, near 8%, and by the time of the Fed’s September policy-setting meeting had fallen by more than 1.75 percentage points in anticipation of the Fed’s pivot to policy easing.

Last week’s jump puts the home borrowing rate back up where it was in late August, before the Fed’s rate cut.

The 30-year rate closely tracks the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which rose sharply last week after a government report showed job growth jumped in September and the unemployment rate fell.

The strong showing eased concerns that the labor market was cooling too sharply. Traders moved to price in smaller, and fewer, Fed rate cuts over coming months than they had previously anticipated.

Financial market bets now reflect an expectation that the Fed will reduce its policy rate, now in the 4.75%-5.00% range, to a range of 3.50%-3.75% by the middle of next year.