China September bank lending set to rise on policy support: Reuters poll

By Kevin Yao and Ella Cao

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s new yuan loans likely jumped in September from August, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, as the central bank ramps up stimulus to drive the sputtering economy towards this year’s growth target.

Banks likely issued 1.87 trillion yuan ($264.75 billion) in net new yuan loans last month, the median of 16 economists’ estimates showed.

That would more than double August’s 900 billion yuan but fall short of the 2.31 trillion yuan issued in the same month a year earlier.

In an effort to spur the flagging economy, the central bank in late September unveiled its most aggressive monetary stimulus package since the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with extensive property market support including mortgage rate cuts.

The central bank has promised further policy easing.

Chinese leaders also pledged to deploy “necessary fiscal spending” to meet this year’s growth target of around 5%.

On Tuesday, the head of China’s state planner said the country was “fully confident” of achieving the 2024 growth target but refrained from introducing stronger fiscal steps, disappointing investors who had bet that more policy support will be needed to get the economy back on solid footing.

Outstanding yuan loans likely rose 8.3% in September from a year earlier, the poll showed, down from 8.5% in August. The forecast figure would mark a fresh record low, highlighting weak household and corporate confidence despite lower interest rates.

Broad M2 money supply growth in September was seen at 6.4%, up slightly from 6.3% in August.

Any acceleration in government bond issuance to revive the economy could help boost growth in total social financing (TSF), a broad measure of credit and liquidity. Growth of outstanding TSF slowed to 8.1% in August from 8.2% in July.

China’s finance ministry will detail plans on fiscal stimulus to boost the economy at a news conference on Saturday, the government’s main information office said on Wednesday, signalling more forceful policies to revive growth.

Local governments have issued 2.83 trillion yuan in special bonds, or 90% of such bonds used for project construction this year, by the end of September, the state planner has said.

In addition, the central government has issued 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special bonds planned for this year to fund major projects, according to the state planner.

In September, TSF likely jumped to 3.73 trillion yuan from 3.03 trillion yuan in August, the poll showed.

The data is expected to be released Oct.10-15.

($1 = 7.0633 Chinese yuan renminbi)