Fed’s Collins expects more rate cuts amid confidence inflation is easing

By Michael S. Derby

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said on Tuesday that with inflation trends growing weaker it is very probable that the U.S. central bank can deliver more interest rate cuts.

“Further adjustments of policy will likely be needed,” Collins said in the text of a speech to be delivered before a conference at her bank.

Noting that Fed officials predicted half a percentage point’s worth of cuts by year-end at their policy meeting in September, she said “I will stress that policy is not on a pre-set path and will remain carefully data dependent, adjusting as the economy evolves.”

Collins weighed in on monetary policy following Friday’s very strong September hiring data that challenged the notion of how many rate cuts the Fed might be able to deliver.

The Fed lowered its overnight target rate range by 50 basis points last month, to between 4.75% and 5%, as officials took their foot off the brake as inflation has been easing and job market concerns grew. But the recent hiring data was stronger than many had expected, raising questions as to whether the Fed will be as aggressive with future cuts compared to their latest forecasts.

Collins said that while core inflation pressures remain elevated, she is increasingly confident inflation is moving back to the Fed’s 2% target.

She said she viewed the job market as strong with low unemployment. “The recent data, including September’s unexpectedly robust jobs report, bolster my assessment that the labor market remains in a good place overall – neither too hot nor too cold,” she noted.

Looking ahead, “it will be important to preserve the currently healthy labor market conditions,” she said, noting that it would “require economic activity continuing to grow close to trend, which is my baseline outlook.”

Collins also said that wage gains remain elevated but pointed out that high productivity levels are helping to keep these increases from being a notable contributor to inflation.