Australia revises down commodity revenue forecasts as prices trend lower

By Lewis Jackson

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australia slightly revised down its forecasts for resource and energy export earnings on Monday as lower prices across a broad range of commodities and a stronger currency continued to pressure a key source of government revenue.

Australia now expects commodity export earnings to fall about 10% to A$372 billion ($256 billion) for the year ended 30 June 2025, down from a forecast of A$380 billion made in June, according to the official resources and energy quarterly. Revenues hit A$415 billion last year.

The decline is set to continue into 2026, albeit at a slower pace, hitting A$354 billion.

Commodity prices are down because of slower economic growth in the developed world, a consequence of higher interest rates, and weakness in China, a major source of demand for steel and other commodities, the report said.

Australia’s largest export iron ore has been particularly hard hit by the slowdown in the Chinese property sector and prices are down about a third this year.

The country forecasts iron ore export revenue to fall to A$99 billion in the year ended 30 June 2026 from A$138 billion last year.

Prices were lower across much of the basket of resources covered by the report, including metals important to the renewable energy transition like nickel and lithium.

Lower prices driven by a surge of supply from Indonesia have forced some Australian nickel mines to shut.

($1 = 1.4550 Australian dollars)