Factbox-Big banks start to add October cut to ECB forecasts

LONDON (Reuters) -Several brokerages now expect the European Central Bank to deliver a quarter-point cut at its Oct. 17 meeting, as data showing economic weakness and slowing inflation pushes policy makers to focus more on growth and less on price pressures.

Market pricing now reflects around an 80% chance of such a rate cut, which would follow reductions at the ECB’s June and September meetings.

Euro zone business activity contracted sharply and unexpectedly in September, surveys showed, as the bloc’s dominant services industry flatlined and a downturn in manufacturing accelerated, while inflation in France and Spain for September came in very soft.

Sources told Reuters that ECB policy doves are preparing to fight for an October rate cut – though this would likely meet resistance from more conservative peers – a turnaround from the aftermath of the ECB’s September meeting when they saw an October move as unlikely.

Here are the latest forecasts from some brokerages.

Rate cut

Brokerage estimates

(bps)

Terminal

Oct ’24 Dec rate/ end ’25 forecast

’24

Goldman 25 25 2.0% (June 2025)

Sachs

Deutsche – 25 2.0%-2.5% (mid-2025)

Bank

HSBC 25 25 2.25% (April 2025)

BNP 25 25 2.25% (end-2025

Paribas forecast)

RBC 25 25 2.25% (April 2025)

25 25 2.0% (June 2025)

JP

Morgan

Barclays – 25 2.50% (end 2025

forecast)

Citi – 25 likely under 2%

UBS IB – 25 2.25% (end-2025

forecast)

ING – 25 2.25% (end 2025

forecast)

BBVA (BME:BBVA) – 25 2.75% (November 2025)

SEB – 25 2.00% (end 2025)