Dollar firm following sharp rebound as Fed speakers eyed

By Kevin Buckland

TOKYO (Reuters) – The dollar held firm on Thursday following its sharpest rally since early June as traders looked ahead to speeches from key Federal Reserve policy makers later in the day for clues on the pace of interest rate cuts.

The U.S. currency rebounded strongly overnight from a more than one-year low to the euro and 2 1/2-year trough versus sterling.

While there was no obvious catalyst for the rebound, investors appeared to take a more nuanced view on just how aggressive future U.S. rate reductions would be, with Fed speakers this week not presenting a unified view on the path forward.

On Wednesday, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said she “strongly supported” the decision to cut rates by half a point earlier this month to kick off the easing cycle, but didn’t talk about her preferences for the pace of reductions from here.

Earlier this week, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said policymakers “can’t be behind the curve” if the economy is to have a soft landing. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the central bank needn’t go on a “mad dash” to lower rates.

“I’m not getting the feeling at this point that it’s particularly unanimous,” said Kenneth Crompton, chief rates strategist at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY).

“It sort of feels like they’ve done their catch up…and from here it’s probably more 25s than 50s.”

Later Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell gives pre-recorded remarks at a conference in New York, where New York Fed President John Williams also speaks. Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook take to the podium at various other venues as well.

Weekly U.S. jobless claims data will be closely scrutinised later on Thursday, given the Fed’s shift in focus to employment over inflation.

“To the extent that dramatic Fed labour market weakening is going to be an implicit part of what’s needed to support market pricing for at least one more 50 basis cut this year, it’s the best high-frequency indicator we have on that,” NAB’s Crompton said.

Traders still expect a second super-sized 50-basis point rate reduction at the Fed’s next meeting in November, but the odds edged down to 57.4% from 58.2% a day earlier, according to the CME Group’s (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch Tool.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against the euro, sterling, yen and three other major peers, eased 0.07% to 100.87 as of 0034 GMT, following a 0.57% jump on Wednesday, its biggest one-day gain since June 7.

The euro was little changed at $1.1135, after pulling back sharply from $1.1214, a high not seen since July of last year.

Sterling was flat at $1.3322. On Wednesday it climbed to $1.3430 for the first time since February 2022.

The yen strengthened about 0.15% to 144.57 per dollar, climbing off a three-week low of 144.845 reached in the prior session.

Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s July meeting, when the central bank raised short-term interest rates, showed policymakers were divided on how quickly the central bank should raise interest rates further.

The Australian dollar added 0.15% to $0.68335, finding its feet after Wednesday’s sharp retreat from a 19-month peak of $0.6908.

The Chinese yuan was steady at 7.0284 per dollar in offshore trading after it pulled back on Wednesday from its highest since May of last year at 6.9952.

The Swiss franc was little changed at 0.8499 per dollar ahead of a policy announcement from the central bank on Thursday, with a third consecutive quarter-point rate reduction widely expected.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin eased 0.8% to $62,915.

(This story has been corrected to say U.S. rate reductions, not hikes, in paragraph 3)