Argentina’s Milei sees gravity-defying poll numbers start to fall

By Adam Jourdan

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentina’s libertarian President Javier Milei, who has managed to stay popular despite painful spending cuts since taking office late last year, is seeing his support start to wane, latest polls show, a big challenge to his economic reforms.

A closely-watched survey from the Torcuato Di Tella university on Monday showed that previously rosy support for Milei’s government fell almost 15% in September, the steepest fall during his nine-month administration.

Data from pollster Poliarquía showed a 7% fall in the month, while a survey from consultancy Proyeccion showed positive views on Milei’s government dipping to 44.8% and negative views rising to 50.7%. Another from CB Consultora showed support sliding.

The data underscores a major challenge to Milei, a brash economist and former pundit who had managed so far to push tough austerity measures while keeping voters onside and avoiding major street protests despite a recession and rising poverty.

In September Milei blocked planned increases to pension payouts initially approved by Congress and pitched an austere 2025 budget. Meanwhile gas, water and electricity costs have risen for many as state subsidies have been withdrawn.

Milei’s deep cuts have won plaudits from investors and the markets, with many seeing them as necessary after years of fiscal deficits, soaring inflation and economic instability. But they have hit economic activity, jobs and pushed up poverty.

The pro-market leader relies on robust popular support given he only has a small minority in Congress. Support in the polls gives his reforms legitimacy and helps him win over allies in the legislature that have enabled him to get bills approved.

The libertarian has recognized that his “zero deficit” plan involves more short-term pain for normal Argentines, but he has pledged that things will improve as investment comes back into the resource-rich country and inflation cools.

Alejandro Catterberg, director of consultancy firm Poliarquía, told local radio that Milei’s strong support so far was actually the anomaly, given the severe economic reforms.

“What we’re starting to see in our polls and those of others is that the law of gravity does exist,” Catterberg said on Tuesday. “Finally what happens to all governments is beginning to happen to Milei, which is that in a process of economic adjustment his poll numbers begin to fall.”