EVs could reach 24% EU car market share by 2025, T&E says

By Anna Peverieri and Alessandro Parodi

(Reuters) – Battery-electric cars (BEVs) sold in the European Union are set to reach a total market share of between 20% and 24% by 2025, mostly because of cheaper selling prices, campaign group Transport & Environment (T&E) said on Tuesday.

EV sales in the EU have slowed in recent months – to a 14% market share in the first half of the year – in part due to diverging policies on green incentives across the bloc, while regulators, seeking to protect EU industry, have imposed hefty tariffs on Chinese cars.

Germany, the European Union’s largest EV market, in September introduced incentives to speed up the green transition.

T&E, which in June had forecast a 21% share for next year, anticipates sales will pick up.

It said its new projections take into account the expected arrival in 2024 and 2025 of seven new fully-electric models priced under 25,000 euros ($27,835.00), accounting for 10%-15% of the BEV market next year.

BEVs should contribute about 60% of the carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction that carmakers require to achieve EU emissions targets next year, while hybrid options could contribute 20% of emission reductions, it said.

Facing a drop in EV demand and increased competition from cheaper Chinese rivals, European manufacturers have urged EU lawmakers to activate a crisis clause that would postpone their CO2 targets by two years.

T&E said lawmakers should resist any moves to weaken or delay 2025-2030 targets and electrification should be underpinned by robust national policies.

“The current lead enjoyed by Chinese EV makers only shows that the longer the EU protects its laggard automakers, the less competitive they will be”, T&E said.

Automakers such as Stellantis (NYSE:STLA), Toyota (NYSE:TM), Renault (EPA:RENA), and Mercedes-Benz (OTC:MBGAF) have adjusted their electrification targets downward.

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