Possible US corporate tax reforms may alter outlook for S&P 500 earnings – GS

Investing.com — Reforms to the US corporate tax code following November’s presidential election could change the outlook for earnings for S&P 500 companies, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.

In a note to clients on Wednesday, the analysts estimated that a single percentage point change in the statutory domestic tax rate would shift the income posted by S&P 500 companies by “slightly less than 1%,” or about $2 of 2025 earnings per share “all else equal.”

“A tax cut scenario in which the federal statutory domestic corporate tax rate declines from 21% to 15% would arithmetically boost S&P 500 earnings by about 4%,” the analysts said. “A tax hike scenario in which the rate rises to 28% would reduce earnings by about 5%.”

Both presidential candidates, Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, have proposed possible overhauls to the corporate tax structure. However, the Goldman Sachs analysts noted that such changes “are not a given,” adding that, because the candidates are not expected to preside over a US Congress that is fully controlled by their party, “campaign proposals do not always translate into legislative reality.”