Sept 50bps cut rate gets boost as JOLTS report flags labor market weakness: Citi

Investing.com — A prospect of a larger 50 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s meeting later this month was given a big boost on Wednesday, Citi said, as the bigger-than-expected drop in job openings showed the labor market is at risk of a sharper weakening.

“Today’s report adds to the body of evidence that the labor market is not only looser than pre-pandemic but is continuing to cool and potentially now at a faster pace,” Citi analysts said in a note.

Job openings fell more than expected in July to 7.67 million from a downwardly revised 7.91 million in June, pushing the ratio of vacancies to unemployed to 1.07-to-1, below pre-pandemic levels.

With the labor market now in the monetary policy driving seat, each update on the health, or lack thereof, takes on added importance.  

The softer job openings data comes just days ahead of the August jobs report due Friday. Citi is expecting a below-consensus 125,000 new jobs and a 4.3% unemployment rate in the August jobs report, driven by an ongoing slowdown in leisure, hospitality and government hiring. 

The analysts flagged downside risk” to leisure and hospitality as well as government hiring, pointing to the “depressed hiring rate in leisure and hospitality and slowing hiring in the government sector.”

September isn’t likely to be the only meeting that a big rate cut could make an appearance, Citi believes, forecasting the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points again by 50 basis points in November as the labor market continues to weaken.