German trade group sounds alarm as exporters stare down recession

BERLIN (Reuters) – German exporters are staring down a recession in foreign trade, with sentiment in the sector growing alarmingly dark, the BGA trade lobby group said on Wednesday.

For 2024, the Federation of German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services (BGA) expects exports to continue to fall, contracting by 0.3%, while imports are set to shrink by 2.0%.

BGA president Dirk Jandura called the forecasts a wake-up call for the German government, saying that roughly 70% of the businesses surveyed said Berlin’s measures went in the wrong direction or that its response did not go far enough.

“German foreign trade is facing a recession,” he said.

Concerns abound among BGA’s several hundred members, from weak growth in the EU internal market, persistently poor figures from China and the results of the U.S. election, Jandura said.

Sentiment has dropped significantly since the first half of the year, and exporters are sceptical that there will be a recovery in the second half, with the assessment of future business expectations at its lowest level to date, he added.

“The levers for saving our model of the export nation are obvious: We need less bureaucracy, fewer burdens and, above all, a clear commitment and the courage to engage in more free trade,” said Jandura.