Investors need to continue brace for lower rates as Fed cuts get underway: UBS

Investing.com — Investors should continue to prepare for lower interest rates as the Federal Reserve begins its anticipated rate cuts, according to UBS.

In a note to clients on Tuesday, UBS highlighted that despite equity markets ending August on a high note, ongoing economic uncertainties mean that the Fed is poised to ease monetary policy further.

UBS pointed out that the Federal Reserve has given its “clearest signal to-date that rate cuts are on the way,” with Chair Jerome Powell recently indicating that the “time has come” for easing.

The expectation follows mixed economic signals, such as a rise in U.S. unemployment to 4.3% in July and a slowdown in consumer price inflation to 2.9% year-over-year. UBS now expects the Fed to cut rates at each of its three remaining meetings in 2024.

The note also addressed the recent volatility in equity markets, which experienced a sharp decline in early August due to technical factors like the unwinding of yen carry trades and overextended positions in tech stocks.

However, as these factors faded and U.S. economic data showed some resilience, markets recovered, leaving both global and U.S. stocks higher for the month.

The MSCI All Country World Index ended August 1.8% higher, and the S&P 500 gained 2.4%, bringing its year-to-date gain to 19.5%.

UBS advised investors to remain cautious. “As returns on cash are eroded, we think investors should consider diversified fixed income and equity income strategies as alternatives to cash,” they wrote.

The note also suggested that investors should consider adding exposure to defensive assets like gold and the Swiss franc to hedge against potential market volatility.

The investment bank explained: “While investors should avoid making outsized portfolio moves based on election outcomes, we do see scope to review portfolio hedges, to consider adding exposure to gold and the Swiss franc—which can offer defensive qualities in periods of uncertainty—and to manage portfolio overexposure to election-sensitive sectors and currencies (like the Chinese yuan).”