China’s Dec exports likely gained momentum ahead of tariff uncertainty: Reuters poll
By Ethan Wang and Joe Cash
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s exports probably expanded at a faster pace in December, suggesting producers raced to move inventory to major markets ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House this month and fresh trade risks.
Outbound shipments were expected to have risen 7.3% from a year earlier in value terms, the median forecast of 17 economists in a Reuters poll showed, up from a 6.7% expansion in November.
Imports in December likely shrank 1.5%, narrowing from a 3.9% drop the previous month, pointing to factory managers rushing to secure tech products in anticipation of tighter semiconductor export controls from the United States.
The data, due on Monday, pointed to sustained strength in China’s exports, even as the broader economy grapples with challenges like a protracted property market crisis and deflationary pressures.
Still, different views persist among China watchers. JP Morgan predicted a 7.9% increase in exports, while Standard Chartered (OTC:SCBFF) expected a slower 5.4% growth.
Most economists surveyed by Reuters agreed that imports remained in contraction for a third straight month, though Standard Chartered forecast a modest 1.5% growth.
South Korea, a leading indicator of China’s imports, reported an 8.6% increase in shipments to China in December.
Exports could remain resilient at the beginning of 2025 as exporters continue front-loading, Barclays (LON:BARC) Research said. Yet, uncertainties loom over Trump’s tariff threats, which could trigger a trade war between the U.S. and China.
Trump, who has proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese imports, recently denied a media report that his team was exploring a scaling back of tariff plans to cover only critical imports due to concerns about inflation.
Meanwhile, trade tensions with the European Union have remained heightened, where EU tariffs of up to 45.3% on Chinese electric vehicles have strained relations.
Beijing responded by targeting European goods such as brandy with anti-dumping investigations amid negotiations to reverse or scale back the tariffs.
Economists have continued to call on China to rebalance the economy by shifting reliance on investment and exports towards consumption to avoid a prolonged period of low growth.
China’s President Xi Jinping has promised “more proactive” policies to spur growth in 2025, while policymakers recently pledged to “vigorously” boost consumption and expand domestic demand.
Reuters reported that the government expects to maintain an economic growth target of around 5% this year.
China’s December trade surplus is forecast at $99.8 billion, up from $97.4 billion in November.