By Anirban Sen, Anousha Sakoui and Kane Wu
LONDON/NEW YORK/HONG KONG (Reuters) – Top dealmakers expect global mergers and acquisitions (M&A)volumes to surpass $4 trillion next year, the highest in four years, buoyed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s promise of less regulation, lower corporate taxes and a broadly pro-business stance.
Following are comments from investment bankers and M&A lawyers on the outlook for dealmaking in 2025:
DANIEL WOLF, M&A PARTNER AT KIRKLAND & ELLIS
“I think people are getting a little bit worried that the pace of interest rate drops is getting slower and probably less predictable because of stubborn inflation numbers. A more unpredictable problem is the possibility that you have a target business where you signed the deal and are waiting to close the deal, and suddenly a tariff war breaks out in that industry or country. And this deal that you penciled out, suddenly doesn’t make sense because the tariffs change the economics so drastically. So, you have to brace yourself for more unpredictability.”
JAY HOFMANN, CO-HEAD OF M&A, NORTH AMERICA, JPMORGAN
“Antitrust enforcement will no doubt be more accommodating (under Trump) than it was under the Biden administration, but probably won’t be quite as accommodating as it has been under traditional Republican administrations. The discussions and the sentiment around unshackling businesses in the financial sector from some of the regulatory burdens that they’ve had over the last 20-plus years – that’s probably the biggest upside we see next year for M&A. The prospect of a more challenging tax regime, whether it’s corporate or individual, has obviously gone away. Those two things are tailwinds for the economy and for dealmaking.”
DAN GRABOS, HEAD OF AMERICAS M&A AT BARCLAYS
“2024 has been one of the most unique years I’ve seen in my career – it was all about the quarters. The first quarter was dominated by transformational deals of $10 billion-plus in North America. And Q2 saw a comeback in dealmaking in Europe as well as pick-up in deal sizes below $10 billion. Somewhat surprisingly in Q3, we saw activity in Asia-Pacific, except for China, with some sizeable situations in Japan. The fourth quarter has been all about private equity with elevated levels of take-privates.”
ALISON HARDING-JONES, GLOBAL HEAD OF M&A AT DEUTSCHE BANK
“It’s been a year of real political change around the world with big elections. Now that we are through those, the expectation is that things will pick up. That’s combined with one of the most important drivers being inflation under control and interest rates coming down.”
“We expect to see moves by both big European companies into the U.S. but also from the U.S. into Europe. That is partly to offset some of the concerns on tariffs that may come and partly because the U.S. is the single biggest market in the world and is increasingly attractive on a relative basis.”
SAMSON LO, CO-HEAD OF ASIA-PACIFIC M&A AT UBS
“Trump’s proposed tariffs could trigger more divestment or consolidation in certain sectors that are most impacted, including steel and solar. We don’t know the extent, but those industries will likely have dislocation.
There has been more clarity on China’s stimulus. Sentiment is improving. Confidence is back. Cross-border transactions will be back, propelled by corporates and investors’ confidence, and interest rates leveling off.
Take-private deals have been on the rise in Hong Kong, Australia and Japan, with more clarity on interest rates and that will be a main theme for next year.”
JOHN COLLINS, GLOBAL CO-HEAD OF M&A AT MORGAN STANLEY
“We’ve been pretty purposeful about trying to add some people in anticipation of a bit more activity. We’re certainly more in growth mode than we have been at other times. We’re reasonably confident that there will be more activity, but I certainly don’t know that we expect the flood-gates to open.
There’s some question as to how the geopolitics will impact cross-border deals, both into and out of the U.S. and I think Europe as well.”
NESTOR PAZ-GALINDO, GLOBAL CO-HEAD OF M&A AT UBS
“We are seeing deals where companies want to alter their geographic footprint or exit certain end-markets. These aren’t consolidation deals, rather they are aimed at accelerating the execution of corporate strategy, at bringing about corporate clarity. It’s not about the mega mergers. There will be some of these, but most of the activity will be centered on transformational add-ons that can be done in cash.”
BENOIT D’ANGELIN, FOUNDER & CEO, D’ANGELIN & COMPANY
“I see a strong sense of urgency from European clients to get more scale. European corporates are trying to get large enough to be able to compete globally and have products that are in demand – if there are tariffs, they are unlikely to be imposed on them.”
STEPHEN PICK, HEAD OF M&A FOR EMEA, BARCLAYS
“We are having a lot of discussions with companies around capital rotation strategies, to simplify equity stories and focus on higher returning core businesses. In addition, boards are increasingly focused on M&A to deliver growth, which is being prioritized over capital returns, and we expect that this trend will continue. The wave of banking mergers and broader (financial institutions) consolidation is a good example.”