Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has indicated that a series of gradual interest rate cuts is likely to occur over the coming year, asserting that the decline in inflation is solidly taking hold.
In remarks made at the Financial Times Global Boardroom event, Bailey emphasized that while inflation had decreased to the Bank’s target during the summer, expectations were set for a subsequent rise above the target level.
Despite a drop in British inflation that aligned with the Bank of England’s 2% target over the summer months, October saw a larger-than-anticipated increase, propelling inflation rates above the target once more. The acceleration of underlying price growth was also noted.
Following Bailey’s interview, the British pound experienced a downturn against the U.S. dollar. The Bank of England had factored in financial market expectations of four interest rate reductions in the next year into its latest economic forecasts.
Bailey clarified to companies anticipating these cuts that the Bank’s projections are based on current market rates, which had indeed suggested four cuts, and he stressed the term ‘gradual’ in the Bank’s report.
Bailey also addressed the complexities of predicting inflation in the context of increased protectionism and the potential rise in trade tariffs should Donald Trump return to the White House.
He stated that while trade tariffs influence traded prices, the overall impact on inflation is complicated and depends on various factors, including the responses of other countries and the behavior of exchange rates.
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