Investing.com poll: What will the Fed do with interest rates on Thursday?

Investing.com — With the Federal Reserve set to announce its latest interest rate decision this Thursday, Investing.com’s latest poll is aiming to measure expectations on the central bank’s next move.

The Fed surprised markets with a 50-basis point cut in September, bringing the target federal funds rate range to 4.75% – 5.00%, with members expressing confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2%.

The latest jobs report showed a notable slowdown in hiring, with only 12,000 jobs added in October. This fell well short of economist expectations, impacted by Hurricanes Helene and Milton and ongoing labor disruptions.

The report also noted that, although weather effects are difficult to isolate, the storms likely influenced the weaker-than-expected employment data. Coupled with the broader trend of a cooling labor market, some believe these factors could push the Fed to act conservatively in lowering rates.

So, as the Fed rate announcement approaches, Investing.com’s latest poll asks:

https://x.com/Investingcom/status/1853450722551230756

As of Monday, CME Group’s (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch Tool indicates a 99.8% probability that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point, with an additional 82.8% chance of a similar move in December.

In a note to clients, analysts at Deutsche Bank said they expect the Fed to deliver a 25bp cut at Thursday’s FOMC meeting.

“This action would mark a continuation of ‘recalibrating’ the monetary policy stance to an environment with lower inflation and more balanced risks to the Fed’s dual mandate,” said the bank.

They believe a 25bp reduction will likely be broadly supported on the Committee, although they note that future decisions could be more contentious.

In addition, Deutsche Bank feels Powell is unlikely to provide forward guidance about the policy path ahead, saying that while he will continue to frame the outlook as tilted towards normalizing policy over time, they expect he is likely to note that future reductions will be data dependent and occur on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

The bank’s current baseline case is that the Fed will deliver another 25bp reduction in December and guide the policy rate back towards its nominal neutral level of ~3.5% next year.