Mexico’s headline inflation seen up, core down, in first half of October- Reuters poll

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Headline inflation in Mexico probably accelerated in the first half of October, while its core measure continued to ease, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will continue cutting its benchmark interest rate.

The median forecast from 10 analysts estimated headline inflation of 4.67% for the first half of the month, up from 4.50% in the previous two weeks, when it touched its lowest level since March.

Analysts attributed the uptick mainly to a seasonal rise in electricity rates as government subsidies for the hot season ended in some cities.

The closely-watched core inflation index, which excludes highly volatile prices, however is expected to drop to 3.84%, its lowest level since January 2021.

In the first 15 days of October, headline prices rose by 0.42% compared with the previous 15-day period, while an increase of 0.20% is expected for the core index, according to the poll.

Last month, the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.50%, in its third policy easing this year. According to the minutes from the September meeting, the board expects the progressive deceleration of inflation to allow further rate adjustments in the future.

Bank of Mexico still has two more monetary policy decisions scheduled before the end of the year, on Nov. 14 and Dec.19. Based on the central bank’s most recent survey of private sector analysts, the market expects the rate to close out 2024 at 10% before dropping to 8% by the end of next year.

Mexico’s national statistics institute INEGI will publish inflation data for the first half of October on Thursday.

(Report by Noe Torres; Additional reporting by Gabriel Burin; Writing by Aida Pelaez-Fernandez; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)