Fed’s jumbo rate cut; futures higher after stocks slip – what’s moving markets
Investing.com — The Federal Reserve goes big, rolling out a jumbo half-point interest rate cut and signalling that more reductions may be coming this year. US stock futures edge higher on Thursday after equities ended the prior session lower following the announcement and a closely-watched news conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Bank of England is now set to reveal its latest rate decision, followed by the Bank of Japan on Friday.
1. Fed announces super-sized rate cut and signals start to new easing cycle
The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday and indicated that it would announce further cuts this year, as the central bank kicks off an easing cycle to shore up the economy following a prolonged battle against surging inflation.
The Federal Open Market Committee, the FOMC, cut its benchmark rate to a range of 4.75% to 5.0% after leaving borrowing costs at a more than two-decade high for over a year. The decision wasn’t unanimous as Fed Governor Michelle Bowman preferred to lower rates by just 25 basis points.
It was the first reduction since March 2020. The size of the cut, along with the updated “dot plot” of officials’ forecasts, indicated that policymakers may be attempting to stem any potential weakening in the economy after the period of elevated rates.
At a press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed concerns about a recession, pointing to resilient economic growth, cooling price gains and a “solid” labor market.
“I don’t see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood of a downturn is elevated,” Powell said. “[Economic] growth at a solid rate, inflation coming down, you see a labor market that’s that’s still at very solid levels, so I don’t really see that [recession risk] now.”
2. Futures point higher
US stock futures edged higher on Thursday after ending lower in choppy trading in the prior session following the Fed’s announcement.
By 03:31 ET (07:31 GMT), the S&P 500 futures contract had gained 62 points or 1.1%, Nasdaq 100 futures had added 323 points or 1.7%, and Dow futures had advanced by 267 points or 0.6%.
On Wednesday, equities on Wall Street rallied after the Fed revealed its half-point rate cut and peaked as Powell held his news conference. The benchmark S&P 500 briefly surged past an intraday record, but ultimately finished lower by 16 points or 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also shed 55 points or 0.3% and the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped by 103 points or 0.3%.
“What bears were talking about [was that] [t]he Fed rate cut was widely expected and largely priced in by stocks,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note to clients.
Elsewhere, the spread between the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yield, an indicator of future growth projections, steepened to its highest level since 2022, while the dollar index — which gauges the greenback against a basket of its currency pairs — was flat.
“Unless jobs figures come in much stronger than expected, and force the Fed to a more cautious easing path, the dollar appears bound to stay soft into the US election,” analysts at ING said in a note.
3. Bank of England decision in focus, Bank of Japan ahead
Traders were now turning their attention to the Bank of England, with the central bank set to make its latest policy decision on Thursday.
The BoE is expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 5.0%, after cutting in August, with policymakers likely to reiterate their “careful” stance against easing too fast or too soon.
UK consumer prices came in at 2.2% on an annual basis last month, close to the bank’s medium-term target, but services inflation is running hot at an annual 5.6%.
Beyond the UK, the Bank of Japan is tipped to keep interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of a two-day meeting on Friday, although officials could still present a hawkish outlook on expectations of higher inflation.
4. Gold nurses overnight losses
Gold prices were slightly higher in early European trade on Thursday, although the yellow metal was nursing overnight losses despite some optimism over the Fed’s jumbo rate cut.
Powell flagged the prospect of more rate cuts, with markets now pricing in a total of 125 basis points worth of rate cuts by the end of the year. But he also said the Fed had no intention of returning to an ultra-low rate environment as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, adding that so-called neutral rate — which neither helps nor hinders broader activity — will be much higher than seen previously.
His comments presented a more elevated outlook for rates in the medium-to-long term, denting some of the recent bullish sentiment around gold, which had touched record highs in the run-up to the Fed’s decision.
However, the prospect of lower rates still bodes well for non-yielding assets such as gold, given that it decreases the opportunity cost of investing in bullion.
Meanwhile, gains in Bitcoin, a speculative asset that saw a bull run in 2021 fueled by ultra-low interest rates, were limited.
5. Crude gains
Crude prices rose after the large interest rate cut from the US central bank raised hopes of increased economic activity in the world’s largest consumer, but concerns over global demand lingered.
By 03:30 ET, the Brent contract gained 0.9% to $74.34 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures (WTI) traded 1.0% higher at $70.58 per barrel.
US government data released on Wednesday showed a bigger-than-expected, 1.63-million barrel draw in inventories. While the figure was much bigger than expectations for a draw of 0.2 mb, it was also accompanied by builds in distillates and gasoline inventories.