Japan August inflation seen accelerating, boosting case for BOJ rate hike – Reuters poll

By Satoshi Sugiyama

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s consumer inflation rate likely picked up for the fourth straight month in August, a Reuters poll of 20 economists showed, tracking comfortably above the central bank’s 2% target and keeping alive expectations for more rate hikes ahead.

Other data next week is expected to show that exports in August continued to grow amid a recovery in chip-related shipments, even though exports would fall short of import gains and result in a trade deficit.

The core Consumer Prices Index (CPI), which excludes fresh food but includes energy items, likely rose 2.8% year-on-year in August, ticking up from a 2.7% rise in the previous month.

The increase is attributed to higher electricity and gas prices as fuel costs continue to soar, and rising food prices blamed on rice shortages, said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

Meanwhile, economists predicted exports likely rose 10% year-on-year in August, slightly slower than July’s 10.3% gain.

Imports were forecast to have grown by 13.4%, attributed to an increase in imports of computer and communication equipment, versus 16.6% in the previous month, leaving an estimated trade deficit of 1.38 trillion yen ($9.79 billion).

The internal affairs ministry will release the CPI data at 8:30 a.m. on Sept. 20 (2330 GMT, Sept. 21), and the finance ministry will announce the trade statistics at 8:50 a.m. on Sept. 18 (2350 GMT, Sept. 17).

Machinery orders, a highly volatile but leading indicator of capital spending for the coming six to nine months, likely grew at much slower pace of 0.5% month-on-month in July after a 2.1% increase in June, the poll showed. The data is due at 8:50 a.m. on Sept. 18 (2350 GMT, Sept. 17).

($1 = 140.9500 yen)