Economists upgrade Singapore 2024 growth forecast, central bank survey shows

SINGAPORE –  Economists have upgraded their expectations for Singapore’s growth in 2024, according to a survey by the country’s central bank published on Wednesday, with better-than-expected external growth seen as the top upside driver for the economy.

The median forecast of 21 economists surveyed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is for the economy to grow 2.6% this year, up from a forecast of 2.4% in surveys done in March and June. They also forecast economic growth of 2.5% in 2025.

A majority of the economists surveyed by MAS did not expect any change in policy settings at the central bank’s review in October. They expect the city-state’s economy to grow by an annual 2.6% in the third quarter of this year. 

The September survey showed economists had lifted expectations for 2024 growth in finance and insurance, construction, wholesale and retail trade sectors.  

Last month, the trade ministry adjusted its GDP growth forecast range for 2024 to 2.0% to 3.0%, from 1.0% to 3.0% previously as Q2 GDP outperformed market expectations at 2.9%.

The median forecast for headline inflation for 2024 was 2.6%, down from 2.8% in the previous June survey. The median forecast for core inflation was 2.9%, down slightly from 3.0% from the previous survey.

Core inflation fell to 2.5% in July, the smallest annual increase in more than two years. The central bank expects core inflation to ease more significantly in the final quarter of this year and has forecast core inflation at 2.5% to 3.5% this year.

The MAS left monetary policy settings unchanged in July. It has not changed policy since a tightening in October 2022, which was the fifth tightening in a row, as broader concerns about growth kept authorities sidelined.