Citi sees incremental stimulus in China as export-driven growth cools

Investing.com– The Chinese government is likely to roll out more, albeit incremental stimulus measures in the coming months, Citi analysts said in a note, especially amid signs that economic support from exports may have peaked. 

China’s exports grew more than expected in August despite increased western trade tariffs on several key industries, chiefly electric vehicles. 

While vehicle exports continued to spur an overall increase in shipments, Citi noted that signs had emerged for a potential peak in export momentum. The brokerage said global manufacturing activity was slowing, while sluggish demand for personal computers- a key driver of exports- and some sluggish semiconductor trends- signaled a potential slowdown in export growth.

Headwinds from U.S. policy were also on the horizon, with reports this week showing lawmakers preparing more trade restrictions on Chinese companies. Citi expects Sino-U.S. trade tariffs to persist even after the 2024 presidential elections, with Republican nominee Donald Trump having proposed a universal hike on all Chinese imports as part of his policies.

Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, under the Biden administration, maintained steep tariffs imposed by Trump on China during his presidency, and has given little indication that they will be lifted. 

Slowing local demand to drive more China stimulus

But while export growth beat expectations, Chinese imports grew at a substantially slower-than-expected pace in August, signaling weak local demand.

Citi said Beijing was likely to roll out “incremental” stimulus measures to help support local demand, especially in the face of increased export headwinds. 

Citi expects a 10-20 basis point reduction in China’s policy rates, a 50 bps cut to the reserve requirement ratio, and another round of mortgage repricing by the government.

China has so far rolled out a slew of liquidity measures to help support local demand. But a persistent disinflationary trend showed little progress on this front.