Dollar wallows at one-week low as payrolls test looms large
By Kevin Buckland
TOKYO (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar sagged near a one-week low versus major peers on Friday with job market indicators sending mixed signals ahead of crucial monthly payrolls data later in the day that is almost certain to set the pace for Federal Reserve policy easing.
The dollar index, which gauges the currency against a basket of six key counterparts, was steady at 101.03 as of 0015 GMT, after slipping about 0.2% overnight and touching 100.96 for the first time since Aug. 29. For the week, it has dropped close to 0.7%.
A report on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits declined last week as layoffs remained low. That helped allay fears that the labor market was deteriorating rapidly, after figures released the previous day showed private jobs growth slumped to a 3-1/2-year low in August.
The mixed data leaves traders guessing before Friday’s payrolls print, with economists surveyed by Reuters predicting an increase of 165,000 jobs in August, up from a 114,000 rise in July.
What the Fed makes of the numbers will be almost immediately obvious, with both Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams separately taking to the podium in the final Fedspeak before the blackout period begins ahead of this month’s policy gathering.
Traders currently see 40% odds for a super-sized 50-basis point (bp) Fed interest rate cut on Sept. 18, versus 60% probability of a quarter-point reduction, according to the CME Group’s (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch Tool. A day earlier, wagers on the larger cut stood at 44%, but a week ago it was 34%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank’s focus was shifting from fighting inflation to preventing deterioration in the jobs market when he strongly endorsed an imminent start to the monetary easing cycle at the annual economic conference in Jackson Hole last month.
“Recent labor data has fanned fears of labor market softening (and) the August payroll report could be a ‘make or break’ moment,” TD Securities analysts including head of global strategy Rich Kelly wrote in a report.
However, TD expects 205,000 jobs were added in August, setting up a quarter point cut this month, and triggering a dollar rebound.
“There is simply lots of bad news priced into the USD, increasing the risks that a string of good news will kick-start a sizeable correction.”
The dollar was steady at 143.25 yen, after dipping to 142.855 overnight for the first time since Aug. 5, pressured by a slide in U.S. Treasury yields, with that on the 10-year note dipping to a one-month trough of 3.721%.
The euro held its ground at $1.1112, just below Thursday’s one-week high of $1.11195.
Sterling was little changed at $1.31755, sticking close to the overnight top at $1.31855, the strongest level since Aug. 30.
The risk-sensitive Australian dollar edged down slightly to $0.6739.
Leading cryptocurrency bitcoin rose 0.2% to $56,167, attempting to recover from its slump to a nearly one-month low of $55,575.78 this week.