Chewy’s forward margin trajectory “compelling and underestimated” – Morgan Stanley

Investing.com — Chewy’s (NYSE:CHWY) forward margin trajectory is “compelling and underestimated,” according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.

In a note to clients on Friday reiterating their “Overweight” rating of the stock, the analysts argued that the online pet food retailer is on a “realistic” path to posting more than $750 million in core income in its 2025 fiscal year, or a margin of over 6.1%. The mark would be 12% above Wall Street consensus estimates, they noted.

The analysts said Florida-based Chewy has shown “strong cost discipline” as well as “outsized” beats on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) so far this year.

They added that they “see an increased probability of our raised $53 bull case (~100% upside) which forecasts [Chewy] reach[ing] $800 million EBITDA in FY25 and >$1B in FY26.”

“Chewy is our favorite name in [small- to medium-cap ecommerce businesses],” the Morgan Stanley analysts said.

In August, Chewy announced that it had 20 million active customers, while net sales per active customer climbed to an all-time high. The firm posted higher-than-anticipated fiscal second-quarter results, and said it now expects current quarter sales of $2.84 billion to $2.86 billion — above FactSet estimates. Chewy also hiked its full-year adjusted EBITDA margin outlook to a range of 4.5% to 4.7%. Shares in the firm jumped at the time.

Fueling much of the business has been Chewy’s monthly subscription plan, which offers pet products like food and litter to US customers through both its website and mobile app. As of early US trading on Friday, Chewy had a market capitalization of $11.06 billion.

Chewy also garnered attention earlier this year when well-known meme stock trader Keith Gill — known online as “Roaring Kitty” — unveiled a $245 million bet in the company.