The rise and fall of Canadian PM Trudeau’s political fortunes

(Reuters) – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces an uncertain future after the small party that has helped keep his Liberal minority government in power withdrew its automatic support on Wednesday.

The blow is the latest in a series of political woes and missteps that have helped reduce Trudeau’s popularity. Recent polls show his Liberals would be crushed by the official opposition Conservatives in an election that must be held by the end of October 2025. The withdrawal of the left-leaning New Democratic Party from its agreement with the Liberals could bring forward an election months earlier.

Here is a timeline of key events charting the arc of Trudeau’s fortunes in Canadian federal politics:

OCTOBER 2013 – WINS RACE TO BECOME LEADER OF LIBERAL PARTY

Trudeau, the son of former Liberal Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, won the leadership of his party at a time when it was at an all-time low. The Liberals, out of power for more than seven years at that point, had been reduced to third-place status in the House of Commons in 2011 for the first time.

OCTOBER 2015 – LEADS PARTY TO VICTORY IN FEDERAL ELECTION

Trudeau’s Liberals, campaigning on a message of change and hope, won a majority of the seats in the federal election, defeating the Conservatives. It was the first time the third-placed party in the House of Commons had ever won an election in Canada.

DECEMBER 2017 – FOUND GUILTY OF CONFLICT OF INTEREST

Canada’s ethics commissioner ruled that Trudeau had broken conflict of interest rules by accepting vacations, gifts and flights from the Aga Khan in 2016. It was the first time a prime minister had been found to have committed such a transgression.

FEBRUARY 2019 – SNC-LAVALIN SCANDAL

Former Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould accused government officials of inappropriately pressuring her to help construction giant SNC-Lavalin avoid a corruption trial. The affair prompted the resignations of top Trudeau aide Gerry Butts, Wilson-Raybould, and Michael Wernick, the head of the federal bureaucracy. Public Works Minister Jane Philpott also quit, citing a loss of confidence in Trudeau. The loss of Wilson-Raybould and Philpott was politically damaging for a prime minister who had constantly described himself as a feminist.

In August, the ethics commissioner ruled that Trudeau and his officials had breached ethics rules. Trudeau took responsibility but refused to apologize.

SEPTEMBER 2019 – BLACKFACE SCANDAL ERUPTS AHEAD OF ELECTION

Shortly after the 2019 election campaign began, photos emerged of Trudeau wearing blackface when he was younger. Trudeau, a strong advocate for multiculturalism, apologized and said his life of privilege had come with a “blind spot.”

OCTOBER 2019 – LIBERALS REDUCED TO MINORITY IN HOUSE

In the Oct. 21, 2019 election, the Liberals were reduced to a minority in the House of Commons, obliging them to strike deals with opposition legislators to govern.

AUGUST 2020 – FINANCE MINISTER RESIGNS

Finance Minister Bill Morneau resigned amid friction with Trudeau over how much funding was needed to help Canada recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Morneau had also come under fire for his ties to a charity tapped to run a student grant program.

SEPTEMBER 2021 – FAILED BID TO WIN BACK MAJORITY IN HOUSE

Elections in Canada are supposed to be held every four years, but Trudeau triggered a national vote for Sept. 20, 2021 in the hope that the electorate would reward his government for the way it had handled the pandemic. The bid failed, and he was returned with a second successive minority.

JULY 2023 – POLLS SHOW LIBERALS STEADILY LOSING POPULARITY

Polls showed the Liberals only slightly trailing the Conservatives in the first half of 2023. In July, amid growing signs of voter fatigue, the gap suddenly widened, and it became increasingly clear a defeat was likely in 2025.

JUNE 2024 – LIBERALS SUFFER BAD DEFEAT IN SPECIAL ELECTION

In a clear sign of the Liberals’ growing unpopularity, the party lost one of its safest seats in a special election in Toronto. Trudeau made clear he would stay in office amid fresh questions about his future.

SEPT 2024 – KEY ALLY WITHDRAWS AUTOMATIC SUPPORT

The New Democrats, who had kept Trudeau in power in return for increased social spending, announced they would withdraw their automatic support. This will force Trudeau to attempt to create new alliances to govern.