PagerDuty shares slump 13% on revenue miss, annual guidance cut

SAN FRANCISCO – PagerDuty Inc. (NYSE:PD) reported second quarter earnings that beat estimates, but shares slumped around 13% in premarket trading Wednesday as revenue fell short of expectations and the company provided weaker-than-anticipated guidance.

The digital operations management platform posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.21, surpassing the analyst consensus of $0.17. Revenue grew 7.7% YoY to $115.9 million, slightly below the $116.51 million analysts expected.

PagerDuty’s outlook disappointed investors. For the third quarter, the company forecasts revenue of $115.5-$117.5 million, well below the $120.3 million consensus. Full-year revenue guidance was also cut to $463-$467 million from the previous $471-$477 million range, falling short of the $473.7 million analysts anticipated.

“We remain confident in ARR growth acceleration as global outages reinforce that incident management has become a CEO priority,” said Jennifer Tejada, Chairperson and CEO of PagerDuty.

The company maintained profitability, reporting non-GAAP operating income of $20.1 million, with a 17.3% operating margin. Free cash flow was $33.3 million for the quarter.

PagerDuty ended the quarter with 15,044 paid customers, down slightly from 15,146 a year ago. However, customers with annual recurring revenue over $100,000 grew 6% to 820.

Commenting on the report, Morgan Stanley analysts the slight Q2 revenue miss and guidance cut “reflect continued weakness in SMB and worsening quarterly linearity.” But while the outlook cut is “disappointing,” analysts note that enterprise traction may be “overlooked,” adding that PD shares screen cheap at around 12x 2025 free cash flow (FCF). 

Meanwhile, RBC Capital Markets analysts lowered their price target on PD stock from $27 to $22 as they “wait for the company to execute on its heightened enterprise focus.”

However, analysts highlighted that PD reaffirmed its outlook for accelerated growth in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in the second half of the year, expecting it to exceed 10%, and projected the dollar-based net revenue retention rate (DBNRR) to reach 107%. This was enough for RBC to maintain an Outperform rating on the stock. 

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