Morning Bid: Jittery markets now 50-50 on 50 bps cut from Fed

By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Investors in Asia are bracing for a wave of top-tier economic data releases on Thursday, as they continue to process this week’s market turbulence sparked by worries that the sought-after U.S. economy’s ‘soft landing’ could end in something far less benign.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 and world stocks slipped further on Wednesday and equity volatility rose again, although by smaller margins. This could give some solace to those looking for Asian markets to rebound on Thursday from their Wednesday slump.

But that will likely be more in hope than expectation as sentiment has turned decidedly bearish.

Figures on Wednesday showed that U.S. job openings slumped to a 3-1/2-year low in July, the latest sign that the labor market is losing steam, and another signal for investors to sell stocks, buy bonds, and position for deeper rate cuts.

U.S. rates futures are now roughly putting a 50-50 probability on the Fed delivering a 50 basis point rate cut later this month and are pricing in 225 bps of easing by the end of next year.

That’s a level of policy easing historically consistent with recession. 

For Asian and emerging markets, falling U.S. yields and a weaker dollar are often positive signals. But not when they’re reflecting a potential recession on the horizon.

Signs of slowdown are mounting. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield hit its lowest since May last year, Brent crude oil hit its lowest this year and is down 8% this week, and China’s 10-year bond yield is again flirting with its recent record low. 

That’s the backdrop for a big day in the Asian calendar on Thursday, when Thailand, Taiwan and the Philippines release August inflation figures, Malaysia’s central bank announces an interest rate decision, and South Korea publishes revised second-quarter GDP data.

Malaysia’s central bank is expected to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 3.0% and keep it there until 2026. 

The Malaysian ringgit has emerged in recent weeks as the best performing Asian currency this year. This helps keep a lid on inflation, and with global volatility rising and the Fed about to cut U.S. rates, the ringgit could stay stronger for longer.

Another buoyant Asian currency is Japan’s yen, as yen-funded carry trades are unwound and the currency fulfills its traditional role as a safe harbor for investors in stormy times. 

It rose around 1% against the dollar for a second day on Wednesday, and could be about to break into a new, stronger trading range.

Headline annual CPI inflation in the Philippines, meanwhile, is expected to slow to 3.6% from 4.4%, essentially halve to 0.4% from 0.83% in Thailand, and cool to 2.27% from 2.52% in Taiwan. Disinflation all around.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Thursday:

– The Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan – CPI inflation (August) 

– Malaysia central bank interest rate decision

– South Korea GDP (Q2, revised)