Stocks on tiptoes ahead of US payrolls, dollar creeps higher
By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Asian stocks slipped and investors bought dollars and yen on Tuesday in a drift toward safe-haven assets ahead of a raft of data that may determine how deeply the U.S. will cut interest rates later this month.
The U.S. ISM manufacturing survey due later in the day and particularly jobs data due on Friday will be crucial for whether the Federal Reserve cuts by 25 basis points or 50 on Sept. 18.
Ten-year Treasury yields were slightly higher at 3.915% and two-year yields hovered at 3.931% as trade resumed in Asia following a U.S. holiday.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ticked 0.5% lower as falling profits weighed on China’s banking sector. [.SS] Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.3%% and S&P 500 futures eased 0.2%.
The yen rose about 0.5% to 146.24 per dollar, while the dollar rose on the euro, sterling and the Antipodean currencies, reflecting a little less confidence that the Fed may opt for a 50 bp cut later in the month.
“It really boils down to Friday’s number,” said Raisah Rasid, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in Singapore, with policymakers looking for a cooling labour market to clear the way for rate cuts.
“We don’t see any stress or indications that would necessitate a 50 basis point cut … the question is how long will risk assets continue to rally?”
Economists forecast the ISM survey improving but remaining in contractionary territory at 47.5 in August. On Friday analysts are looking for a rise of 160,000 in non-farm payrolls (NFP) and a dip in the unemployment rate to 4.2%.
“If NFP comes in on target, or close it it, that’s probably going to lock in that 25-bps cut and I think because of that we’ll probably see some more dollar appreciation,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global in Sydney.
The dollar rose about 0.2% to $1.1054 per euro and rallies in the Australian and New Zealand dollars paused for breath, with the Aussie knocked down nearly 0.8% to $0.6740 and the kiwi down 0.7% to $0.6192. [AUD/]
In Hong Kong, shares in property company New World Development slumped to a two-decade low after the company estimated a $2.6 billion loss for the year to June.
China’s banking index fell 1.8% as four of the country’s five largest lenders reported lower second-quarter profit, weighed by the property sector crisis.
Gold hovered at $2,494 an ounce after hitting a record high above $2,500 in August.
Oil prices have struggled for traction as demand worries weigh against tensions in the Middle East, and Brent crude futures slipped 0.5% to $77.13 a barrel.