Russian central bank set to hike key rate by another 100 bps: Reuters poll

(Reuters) – Russia’s central bank is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 19% at its Sept. 13 meeting to combat inflation and cool the overheated economy, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Monday.

The consensus forecast of 15 analysts polled by Reuters in late August and early September suggested annual inflation would end 2024 at 7%, down from the current rate of 9.1% but slightly up from the previous poll’s forecast of 6.9%.

The central bank anticipates inflation in the range of 6.5-7.0% in 2024 as the supply of goods and services catches up with demand.

At its last meeting in July, the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points to 18%, the highest level since April 2022, and indicated that tight monetary policy would remain for some time to achieve a sustainable slowdown in inflation.

Analysts predicted that the double-digit benchmark interest rate in Russia would remain until 2027, when it is expected to fall to 9.0%. The central bank forecasts an average benchmark rate of 7.5%-9.5% in 2027.

Analysts projected gross domestic product growth this year at 3.6%, below the updated official forecast of 3.9% announced by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, following the release of strong data for the first half of the year.

Growth in capital investment, one of the factors behind strong economic growth, is forecast at 7% in 2024, down from 9.8% last year.

The rouble is expected to weaken by over 5% to 96.0 against the U.S. dollar in a year, compared to the current official exchange rate of 91.19.

“Negative factors for the rouble include geopolitical and sanction risks, capital outflows, demand for foreign currency to buy back shares of Russian companies from foreign owners, and increased budgetary expenditures,” said Mikhail Vasilyev, chief analyst at Sovcombank.

(Reporting and polling by Gleb Bryanski and Alexander Marrow; Editing by Christina Fincher)