Egypt central bank seen holding interest rates steady: Reuters poll

CAIRO (Reuters) – The Central Bank of Egypt CBE will leave its overnight interest rates unchanged when its monetary policy committee meets on Thursday as inflation continues to decline, a poll of analysts forecast.

The CBE kept rates steady at its last two meetings, on July 18 and May 23, saying economic growth remained slow but that inflation had been decreasing.

On March 6, the bank raised rates by 600 basis points (bps) as part of an $8 billion agreement with the International Monetary Fund, bringing total increases since the beginning of the year to 800 bps.

The median forecast in a poll of 15 analysts was for the central bank to hold its deposit rate steady at 27.25% and lending rate at 28.25% when the committee meets. Only one analyst expected the bank to lower rates by 100 bps.

“We anticipate interest rates being left on hold by the CBE given inflation remains well above target,” said James Swanston of Capital Economics.

“However, momentum is in the right direction and with a sharper fall anticipated in the headline rate in early 2025, attention will turn to when that first rate cut will be – for our part, we have pencilled it in for Q1 2025.”

Inflation dropped to 25.7% in July, the first time the real interest rate has been positive since January 2022. Inflation had fallen from a record 38% in September to 27.5% in June.

The monetary policy committee said it was targeting inflation of below 9% by the end of 2024.

Egypt allowed its currency to plunge to under 50 to the dollar as part of its agreement with the IMF in March after having fixed it at 30.85 for a year. The Egyptian pound has since strengthened to about 48.6 to the dollar.